Without seeing most of the nominated films except Ratatouille (which I saw on a transatlantic flight of all places) and Michael Clayton (which I bought on DVD today and just finished watching), I'm going to venture to express justified opinions on who deserves to win an Oscar based almost entirely on movie trailers. Should be fun.
Achievement in directing: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood. I do love me some PTA but given that this film is billed to be different from his other films, I'm a bit nervous throwing my hat in the ring for it. That said, the trailer makes a pretty compelling case for PTA winning. The long unbroken shots, the music, the serious-face acting and long unbroken shots; that's all I need in a film, PTA directing is just icing. Although the Coen brothers probably will this one it's okay since Daniel Day Lewis should and will win for Performance by an actor in a leading role category and thanks to the transitive property of Hollywood awards, so will have PTA.
Screenplay based on material previously produced or published: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. I remember my mother being particularly impressed with this book so I'm going on her recommendation; that and an Explosion in the Sky song I like being featured in the third-act of the trailer. But this category, like so many others, is packed full of well-deserved nominees, so I imagine any winner is likely to be deserving. If it has to lose to anyone though, I'd like it to be PTA for There Will Be Blood, if for no other reason than that I liked Magnolia.
Screenplay written directly for the screen: The Savages. Likely to be an unpopular choice given Juno's total domination of the press in this category. Saying I prefer The Savages over Juno takes me back to my preference for The Thin Red Line over Saving Private Ryan--which is to say, it's not going to be very sustainable in many circles. Whaterrr, the quirky story of a plucky preggers pre-teen doesn't really capture my interest, a "serious comedy" about dysfunctional siblings coping with a father suffering from dementia or a thriller about a lawyer having to face his conscience, those are my kinds of film. That said, I expect Juno will win and suffer the backlash of all Little Miss Sunshine backlashes for doing so. It's too bad this whole thing couldn't be settled on the merits of the poster, in which case The Savages would win hand-down.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score) and (Original song): I'll pick Ratatouille for score (since I actually liked it well enough) and I'll avoid picking a song since I gave up on the Oscars' judgment after Aimee Mann lost to Phil Collins.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role: Javier Bardem. Just from his part in the trailer I'm pretty sure that he makes this movie the powerhouse that it is. Tom Wilkinson is damn good in Michael Clayton and certainly gives the role of a gone-crazy litigator impressive depth, but Bardem scared me in one minute flat and for that, he probably deserves something.
Performance by an actress in a leading role: I'd like Laura Linney to win if only for playing a character who this last year's events has made me incredibly sympathetic for but with Julie Christie is treading the same end-of-life, fading-memory family waters that has me pulling for The Savages, I'm going to split the vote and give it to Marion Cotillard who, from everything I've read is as close to Edith Piaf as anything I'm every likely to see on the screen.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role: Tilda Swinton. It takes a lot of work to make an utterly ruthless lawyer come off as sympathetic, to do so when the entire inertia of the story is pushing against feeling anything but hatred for her is doubly impressive. Whatever the case, she wins for acting-via-pit-stains alone.
Best documentary feature: I'd like Taxi to the Dark Side to win but I'm sort of interested in what Michael Moore might say if he wins for Sicko, so it's really preference vs. curiosity at this point.
Foreign language film: Beaufort. Sure, why not.
Motion Picture of the Year: Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, No
Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood. In all fairness to Juno, one of these things is not
like the other. My pick to win: There Will Be Blood. Probably will win: No Country for Old Men. Like I care.